Analysis of factors affecting stock prices in airline businesses

Along with the supply-demand effect, factors such as the economic situation of the country, future expectations and the performance of the enterprises are quite effective in determining the stock price. In this context, it is aimed to reveal the relationship of operational, firm internal financial and macroeconomic factors of the airline businesses with the stock. In the first part of the application, quarterly operational data covering the years 2005-2017 belonging to 5 traditional and 6 low cost airlines are analyzed by panel data analysis method, and operational factors (RPK, CASK, LF and OKZ) determining the stock price were identified. In the second part, annual financial data of 28 airline businesses covering the years 2005-2018 were analyzed by panel data and panel VAR analysis methods, and firm specific factors (TV, FK, ATO and BD) determining the stock price were identified. In the last part, daily macroeconomic data covering the years 2009-2018 belonging to 14 airline businesses were analyzed by Toda-Yamamoto and Hatemi-J asymmetric causality methods, and macroeconomic (DLKUR, BPETROL and FAİZ) factors that determine the stock price were identified. According to the findings of the study, airline businesses should increase operational income and demand in order to increase their stock value, in parallel with this result, it should increase the aircraft load factors. Along with the increase in revenues and aircraft load factors, the decrease in unit costs and increasing operational profitability, increase profitability and stock value of airlines in accordance with the theory. In addition, airline businesses can increase their stock values by taking advantage of economies of scale, optimizing liquidity status and taking into account the negative impact of financial leverage. Finally; it can be seen that variables of exchange rate of dollar, fuel price and interest rate significantly impact on the stock price of airlines.