Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation variables in Central Anatolia Region

Urbanization, rapid population, developing industry, destruction of forest areas, ineffective and inefficient use of drinking and irrigation water have caused some disadvantages to the nature system in recent years. The most important issues in these disadvantages are: increasing in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and misuse of water resources. Changes in climate because of global warming has showed regional differences. It is known that Turkey's geography will be adversely affected from the global climate change in the future years. Moreover, it is expected that increasing trend in temperature and frequency of severe rainfall. In this thesis, trends of monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data recorded at the meteorological observation stations of the 13 provincial centres of Central Anatolia in the period of 1960-2018 were examined. The results were analysed by using linear trend, Mann-Kendall and Şen's trend test. The obtained results were also mapped with ArcGIS software. As a result, statistically significant increasing trend at 95% confidence level (two-tailed) was observed in monthly mean temperature data of Aksaray and Niğde but no significant trend was observed in other provinces according to MK test. Although there is a significant decreasing trend in monthly total precipitation for Eskişehir, there is not a statistically significant trends for other provinces. According to Şen method, it was observed that monthly mean temperature data for all provinces had a statistically significant increasing trend at 95% confidence level (one-tailed). For precipitation data, a statistically significant decreasing trend was observed in Eskişehir and Karaman; a statistically significant increasing trend was observed in Ankara, Çankırı, Kayseri, Kırıkkale, Konya, Niğde, Sivas and Yozgat. There is not a statistically significant trend in Aksaray, Kırşehir and Nevşehir. According to linear regression method, a statistically significant increasing trend at 95% confidence level (one-tailed) was observed in monthly mean temperature data for only Aksaray. There is not a statistically significant trends for other provinces. A statistically significant increasing trend at 95% confidence level (one-tailed) was observed in monthly precipitation data for only Eskişehir. There is not a statistically significant trends for other provinces.