The effect of variability in bioclimatic comfort conditions on transhumance activities within the scope of adaptation to climate change: The case of Feslikan Plateau

The aim of this study is to determine the potential migration due to thermal stress caused by climate change in the Mediterranean Region, specifically focusing on the Feslikan Plateau in Antalya and the Abanoz Plateau in Mersin, both in the present and future. The study area consists of the Feslikan Plateau and the Abanoz Plateau, both located in the Mediterranean climate zone. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most sensitive areas in the world to climate change, making it a relevant focus for this research. In this study, initial statistical analyses of station data were conducted to determine the impact of climate change on thermal comfort. Current climate data was obtained from the 17952 Elmalı station. Future scenarios were derived from the 922 grid's projections. Thermal comfort was calculated using the PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) index based on the collected climate data. The findings from the PET index calculations were mapped using ArcGIS 10.7 software. Finally, the relationship between changes in thermal comfort conditions and the spatial development of the plateaus was supported by object-based satellite imagery. Field studies conducted on the plateaus revealed that movement towards the plateaus during the summer months, when coastal temperatures significantly increase, is an adaptation effort to counteract thermal stress. As a result of this study, it aims to be a significant resource for evaluating the potential effects of changes in thermal comfort conditions due to climate change on the plateaus in the Mediterranean Region, both now and in the future. It will also contribute to the sustainable development and conservation of plateaus, which are ecologically and culturally sensitive areas.