Determination of the vulnerability of the population aged 65 and over in sakarya to heatwaves with geostatistical methods in the context of climate change adaptation

The effects of climate change are felt every year in the Mediterranean Basin where Turkey is located. Especially, it directly affects the death rates and health problems of the population over 65 years old, defined as a vulnerable population, and its effects on health problems have been increasing in recent years. One of the effects of climate change, the intensity, frequency, and duration of heatwaves are gradually increasing, directly and indirectly leading to deaths. For this purpose, Sakarya, a province in the Marmara Region of Turkey with a dense elderly population and increasing temperatures, has been chosen. Population data, climate data, and satellite imagery from 2014 to 2023 have been used. The Excess Heat Factor (EHF) and Heat Index classification have been used to determine the areas at risk affected by heatwaves. Heat Index values for days with maximum Excess Heat Factor values have been mapped using geostatistical methods in ArcGIS Pro software. According to the United Nations (UN), areas where the elderly population constitutes 8-10% of the total population are classified as elderly. Thus, districts with a percentage greater than 8% are identified as districts with a high elderly population. Areas with a percentage greater than 8% of the elderly population and areas classified by Heat Index classification are intersected to map risky areas. In Adapazarı district, where settlement is dense and the total population as well as the elderly population is high, it has been classified as Caution in the Heat Index classification. The increasing temperature, densification of settlement, and the annually rising proportion of elderly population pose a risk for this district.