The impact of climate change on crop yield

This study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of how climate variables—namely temperature, precipitation, and CO2 levels—affect the yields of five key crops in Türkiye: wheat, potatoes, rice, bananas, and soybeans. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, the research explores both long-run cointegration relationships and short-run dynamic responses to climatic changes on a crop-specific basis. The findings reveal that wheat and potato yields exhibit a stable long-term relationship with climate variables. Wheat benefits from moderate increases in temperature and CO2, yet is negatively affected by extreme heat and excessive precipitation. Similarly, potato yields are positively associated with moderate climate conditions but decline under prolonged heat and waterlogging. On the other hand, rice, banana, and soybean yields do not show any long-run association with climate variables, indicating that their responses are confined to short-run fluctuations. Notably, while CO2 fertilization positively affects banana and soybean yields, its interaction with excessive heat or rainfall can generate compounded stress effects, reducing productivity. The results underscore the need for differentiated climate adaptation strategies across crops. For wheat and potatoes, long-term adaptive responses such as breeding for heat and drought resistance, improved irrigation systems, and altered planting schedules are essential. For rice, bananas, and soybeans, flexible short-term strategies including weather-based advisories, short-cycle cultivars, and advanced drainage infrastructure are critical. At the policy level, the study recommends supporting precision agriculture, expanding farmer education programs, and fostering institutional collaborations for region-specific adaptation planning. By identifying crop-specific climate sensitivities, this study contributes to the growing body of literature on agricultural climate resilience and offers actionable insights for safeguarding Turkiye's food security and rural livelihoods in the face of increasing climate variability.