Food supply security and food crisis in economic terms: A case study of Turkey

This thesis offers a significant contribution to the literature by examining the macroeconomic determinants of food security in Turkey through an econometric framework. In the face of population growth, climate change, and global economic fluctuations, food supply security is no longer solely a matter of agricultural production but is closely linked to macroeconomic policies. By analyzing the long-run relationship between key economic indicators and food production, the study aims to provide guidance for policymakers in developing sustainable and evidence-based strategies. In this regard, the thesis holds both academic value and strategic relevance for agricultural and development policy formulation. This study aims to analyze the macroeconomic determinants affecting food security in Turkey within a long-run dynamic framework. Utilizing annual data from 1970 to 2020, an econometric model was constructed in which the food production index (food) serves as the dependent variable. The independent variables include inflation rate (inf), government expenditures (gov), per capita income (gdppc), trade openness (trade), population (pop), oil prices (oil), and the globalization index (glob). Due to the detection of multicollinearity among variables, four separate models were developed, and the stationarity of the series was examined using ADF and PP unit root tests. To test for cointegration, the ARDL bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) was applied. The test results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship in all four models. In the long run, an increase in per capita income has a statistically significant and positive impact on food production. While inflation and oil prices have a limited positive effect, government expenditures negatively affect food output. The results of the error correction model indicate that short-term shocks dissipate over time and the system returns to equilibrium. In conclusion, enhancing food security in Turkey requires not only increasing agricultural production but also maintaining macroeconomic stability. Economic growth and income improvement are found to be critical determinants of food production. Food security is a multidimensional issue linked to population dynamics, globalization, and economic policies. Therefore, the findings provide important implications for policymakers in designing effective strategies for sustainable food systems.