The impact of the Syrian conflict on Turkish Russian relations before and after conflict

The Syrian conflict has fundamentally transformed Turkish-Russian relations, evolving from cooperative and economically interdependent ties into a complex interplay of strategic competition and pragmatic collaboration. This thesis explores how bilateral relations between the two countries have shifted across political, military, economic, and diplomatic dimensions between 2010 and 2024, within the context of the Syrian conflict. The study employs a qualitative deductive methodology based on historical interpretation and secondary data analysis. Starting from the hypothesis that the Syrian conflict has significantly altered Turkish-Russian dynamics, the research tests this through an in-depth examination of diplomatic developments, military incidents, and economic cooperation. The rationale behind using a deductive, theory-driven method lies in its ability to connect specific geopolitical events to broader theoretical frameworks. The study integrates perspectives from realism, liberalism, and constructivism: realism explains power struggles and regional competition; liberalism highlights the enduring economic ties and institutional cooperation; and constructivism focuses on identity, narratives, and shifting perceptions. Thematic analysis identifies patterns such as evolving trade volumes, defense postures, and alliance shifts. Updated sources up to 2024 are triangulated drawing on academic research, official documents, and expert commentary to ensure depth and credibility. Key findings show that pre-conflict relations were characterized by mutual gains and limited military involvement, while the onset of the Syrian war created sharp divergences, notably Russia's support for Assad versus Turkey's backing of opposition forces. Tensions peaked with incidents like the 2015 Su-24 jet crisis, yet both sides pursued pragmatic diplomatic paths, notably the Astana peace process, illustrating transactional diplomacy and compartmentalized cooperation. The thesis underscores broader regional consequences, with Turkey and Russia asserting greater influence in a multipolar Middle East, diminishing Western presence. Economic ties, especially in energy (e.g., TurkStream), proved resilient. From a global perspective, the findings suggest a shift from traditional Western dominance toward rising regional actors capable of shaping international outcomes. Ultimately, this research contributes to the understanding of how rival states can manage geopolitical conflict through adaptive, transactional strategies bridging theory with evolving realities.