A new distinction in belief functions and an application to scenario analysis

In this study it is aimed to put a distinction in belief functions which are a branch of artificial intelligence, and use of it in scenario evaluation. First it is proposed a distinction between credibility measures and belief measures. In application phase it is aimed to use these measurements in planning and scenario evaluation. With different experts credibility of some primitive scenarios are evaluated, and by these values plausibility and belief values are calculated for each primitive scenarios. According to these calculations each scenario is evaluated by some pre-decided criteria.With this study it is showed that such a evaluation is possible and available. Method which is followed in this study is original that first used in this study. With new defined measurements it is made possible to use new criteria. In this study it is showed that artificial intelligence tools can be used in scenario evaluations. From an angle of results we can say new measurement is helpful for eliminating many primitive scenarios.