The assessment of the realized and foreseen numbers of passengers, construction and operational cost of some of Istanbul rail systems

In parallel with the increasing population and developing automobile technologies around the world, especially after 1950, the ownership of automobiles has increased and accordingly the road network of the cities has become insufficient. In order to provide solutions to increasing traffic congestion, transportation planning studies have been made in many cities. As a result of these studies, various improvements have been made on road networks, capacity has been increased, new road junctions and bridges have been built but none have produced solutions for traffic congestion. As a result of the increased demand, the roads that have been somewhat relieved for a short period of time have left their place to the traffic congestion with the emerging demand for the offered supply, and are surrounded by many city roads, bridges and junctions within the supply-demand vicious circle of transportation. When it is understood that the transportation problems experienced in the cities cannot be solved with the investments made in the highway, different methods have come to the forefront in transportation planning studies and importance has been given to investments in rail systems with public transportation systems and especially high passenger transportation capacity. As a result, transportation planning studies continue to develop an understanding that promotes transportation demand, provides full integration among modes of transport, and gives priority to accessibility and sustainability. The rapid population growth in Istanbul and the increase in car ownership brought traffic congestion and traffic planning studies for Istanbul were made especially after 1980 as a result of increasing traffic congestion. As a result of the studies of the Transportation Master Plan made in 1987, 1997 and 2011, it was revealed that there is a need for rail system investment for Istanbul and as a result, feasibility reports were prepared for the feasibility of many rail system lines throughout Istanbul. Feasibility reports on investment decisions of railway system lines are of great importance. In the feasibility reports, the number of passengers obtained from the transportation models used for estimating the demand for transportation is one of the most important factors that constitute the basis of the study. The feasibility reports and the correctness of the predictions made for the passenger numbers are of great importance for the investment of the rail system. Because the selection and projecting of the railed system type and the construction cost, calculation of operating costs and operating income, calculation of benefit/cost, and consequently the decision to make the project are based on the projections of passenger numbers. Faults made in the predicted route will adversely affect the project and the transportation infrastructure of the city. Despite the technological developments and advanced transportation models that are experienced today, the feasibility reports for road system investments show that the forecasts of the trips are made incorrectly. Consequently, it is observed that the construction costs, operating income and expenses, as well as other parameters affecting the investment in the guided system, are inaccurate. Starting with the Aksaray-Airport light metro line which was first opened in Istanbul in 1989, the in-city rail system construction process has reached a length of 160 km together with the lines that have passed in the past 28 years and construction and project works of various rail system projects are continuing. One of the problems experienced in the railway system projects is the lack and inconsistency of the parameters obtained and used in the preparation of the feasibility reports of the economic and financial evaluations of the projects. Another situation is that investments in directed systems are sometimes misguided for technical reasons, in the direction of the desires and pressures of politicians and administrators. This situation negatively affects the preparation of the projected systems and the process of passing on the crucifixion, resulting in delayed passage of the project, increasing costs and causing the feasibility to operate with passenger numbers far below the projected demand for passengers. In the planning of railway systems, assumptions are made for replacing competing public transport types with feeder systems and the number of trips to the projectable level is obtained. However, since such arrangements cannot be fully realized following the passage of the rail system line, the expected number of passengers can not be reached. As a result, 35-70 thousand passengers / hour / direction, such as high-capacity rail system lines are passed through the imagination, but operated with low passenger demand. As stated in some academic studies, it can be said that this situation should not be perceived only as a special situation for our country or Istanbul if it is considered that about 50% of the passenger demand forecasts are half of all the investments in the whole system in the world. This thesis work consists of seven parts. In the first part, the purpose of the thesis will be mentioned. In the second chapter, including the literature review, information on the historical development of transportation planning studies and the transportation planning studies made for Istanbul will be given as the basis of the rail system feasibility reports. In the third section, information will be given about the railed public transport systems, which are gaining importance due to transportation planning studies and increasing day by day. Historical development of the inner rail systems and different types of inner rail system types such as funicular, tram, light subway, subway and monorail systems are explained under separate headings. In the fourth chapter, information about the history of the inward-looking railway system in Istanbul, the railway system lines serving today and the railway system lines planned for future will be given. In the fifth section, the feasibility reports of existing railway system lines in Istanbul have been examined. Information was given about the parameters used and the results obtained when the feasibility reports were produced. Since there are no feasibility reports for all of the existing rail system lines in this section, the available reports were examined. However, feasibility reports that will set an example for other species, except for monorail, are among the lines to be evaluated among the in-city rail system types. The lines that can be examined by obtaining feasibility reports are as follows; Taksim- Kabataş funicular line, Topkapı-Mescid-i Selam tram line, Otogar- Kirazlı light metro line, Kirazlı- Başakşehir metro line, 4. Levent- Hacıosman metro line, Kadıköy-Kartal-Kaynarca metro line and Levent-Hisarüstü metro line. The number of passengers, operational and construction costs given in the feasibility reports of the subject lines can be evaluated by comparing the number of passengers in the next chapter, with the operating and construction costs. An assessment has been made with supporting information on the outcomes for each of the tracked system lines in relation to the predicted and realized values given in chapter six. The seventh and the last part are conclusions and suggestions and some of the railway system lines in Istanbul which constitute the subject of this thesis are evaluated about the differences between the envisaged and actual number of passengers, construction and operation costs and the results of these differences. It is expected that the predictions contained in the feasibility report of a rail system line will be the ones closest to the truth. It is considered that the results and suggestions obtained in this study will contribute to the feasibility reports of the future system and it will enlighten the parameters obtained at the feasibilities.