Temporal and spatial trend analysis of maximum precipitation in the Black Sea region

Hydro-meteorological and climatological natural disasters as a result of global climate change have increased in recent years. One of the most important natural disasters are flood events caused by extreme precipitation. Analyzing the increase in extreme precipitation events observed in our country is important in terms of water management and planning. Within the scope of this study, it is aimed to analyze the maximum precipitation of the Black Sea region, which has been exposed to heavy loss of life and property, especially with the floods that have occurred in recent years. For this purpose, firstly, homogeneity analyzes of daily maximum precipitation datasets of 17 meteorological stations in the Black Sea region were adhered to. Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Pettitt Test and Buishand Tests were used in homogeneity analysis. According to the test results, it was concluded that the maximum precipitation data of the Black Sea region were statistically homogeneous (with 95% confidence interval). Then, temporal and spatial trend analyzes of maximum precipitation data were performed with Mann-Kendall and sequential Mann-Kendall trend tests. According to the results of Mann-Kendall trend test, statistically increasing trend was determined at 95% confidence interval in 3 of 17 stations (Giresun, Sinop and Bartın). A decreasing trend was determined in 3 of the other 14 stations and an increasing trend was determined in the other 11 stations, but these trends do not reach statistically significant values. According to the Sequential Mann-Kendall results, it was concluded that the trend start years of the stations with a statistically significant trend were 2001 (Sinop and Giresun) and 2008 (Bartın).