Possible changes in the distribution areas of some tree species in Kastamonu due to global climate change

Global climate change is defined as an irreversible problem that may directly or indirectly affect all living things and ecosystems on Earth and that the world has to cope with. Plants, which do not have an effective mobility, are the living group that will be most affected by this process. Especially the migration mechanism needed by forest trees should be provided by human hands. For this, unlike the studies carried out so far, detailed studies in small areas are needed. In this study, it was aimed to determine the current status of Black pine, Scotch pine, red pine, fir, beech and chestnut distribution areas in Kastamonu Forestry Regional Directorate, which is the Forestry Regional Directorate with the highest production in Turkey, and the change of suitable distribution areas due to global climate change. In the study, the current suitable distribution areas of the species and their suitable distribution areas in 2040, 2070 and 2100 according to SSP 126, SSP 370 and SSP 585 scenarios were determined. The results of the study reveal that the suitable distribution areas of the species subject to the study will change in Kastamonu due to the effects of climate change, and this change will manifest itself as an increase in some species and a decrease in others. However, it has also been determined that the evaluations made especially considering the total area are extremely misleading. Due to the effects of global climate change, it has been determined that the suitable distribution areas of the species in Kastamonu will change, that is, some of the suitable distribution areas available today will no longer be suitable distribution areas in the future. In this case, it does not seem possible for species to adapt to the changes in suitable distribution areas unless there is human intervention. Therefore, it is recommended that necessary arrangements should be made in forest management plans taking into account the results of the study.