Habitat suitability modeling on the basis of climate change of the pine purse begle in Kastamonu and Sinop forests

The pine processionary moth belongs to the family Notodontidae, order Lepidoptera, and is an important herbivore species that damages coniferous forests and plantations, especially in Mediterranean countries and Turkey. Like many other harmful insect species, the pine processionary moth is expanding its distribution area due to climate change. This study aimed to determine the difference in the distribution areas of the pine loggerhead beetle in Kastamonu and Sinop, two important forest areas of the western and central Black Sea, depending on global climate change scenarios. For this purpose, in the method of this study, a Java-based program called MaxEnt 3.4.1, which uses the maximum entropy approach, was used to model and evaluate the data obtained from the project. MaxEnt 3.4.1. To use the program, ecological variables related to the area were determined, and maps were created. Later, the program analyzed these maps and data and obtained results. Maps of climate variables in the area, which include the boundaries of the regions where the data are available, were divided into BIO_climate bands by cutting them at an appropriate scale using geographic information systems software. These maps were then converted to the correct projection, which was converted to ASCII format as output so that these maps could be used in the model. Afterwards, MaxEnt 3.4.1. using the program, the change in the distribution areas of the pest (very suitable, suitable, less suitable, unsuitable) within the scope of current and future (2021-40, 2041-60, 2061-80, and 2081-2100) moderate and pessimistic climate change scenarios was determined. At the end of the research, it was determined that the spread of the pest increased more in the pessimistic scenario compared to the moderate plan, and the areas unsuitable for the pest gradually decreased with climate change.