Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on oil, gold prices and stock market in Kazakhstan

According to the World Health Organization, the coronavirus epidemic, which emerged in China in December 2019 and was later officially named COVID-19, has turned into an international emergency. COVID-19 has caused a global economic crisis, the extent and influence of which have not yet been fully evaluated. When the researches evaluating the influence of COVID-19 on the economy of Kazakhstan are examined, it has been seen that the subject has not yet been studied in all its aspects. Wherefore it is essential to evaluate the impact of the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths on oil and gold prices and stock market in Kazakhstan in the period of 2020-2022 in terms of the welfare of the country. The main purpose of the thesis is an examination of whether the influence of COVID-19 on oil, gold prices and stock market in Kazakhstan will be long-term and whether its effects will be permanent. Due to the emergence of COVID-19 in Kazakhstan in 2020, the period for evaluating the influence of the pandemic has been defined as the period from 2020 to 2022. The analysis used COVID-19 new cases and deaths as independent variables; as dependent variables were used the data of prices for oil and gold, as well as the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE). The start date of the analysis was set on March 16, 2020, when a state of emergency was reported in Kazakhstan due to the pandemic. The existence of a long-term relationship between the variables is examined with the ARDL limit test. Causality relationships between variables are tested using the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Empirical results show that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on oil, gold prices and the stock market in Kazakhstan is short-term. In addition, according to the results of the causality analysis, there is no significant causal relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, oil and gold prices, and the KASE stock market index.