Third state intervention in collective violence tendencies: The case of Afghanistan

The aim of this study is to examine the recent political transformation in Afghanistan, which has been in an unstable and conflict climate for a long time; The aim is to reveal that it creates a spiral of conflict that increases regional instability by strengthening the climate of ethnic and religious conflict. The struggle for power lies in the background of the acts of violence against the Shiite and Turkish minorities of the Pashtuns, who have been in control of Afghanistan for 250 years. The historical background of this struggle and the dynamics underlying the internal conflicts are revealed. In the context of the series of events that have continued until today, a possible intervention of Iran in Afghanistan is evaluated as a result of the security dilemma created on the Tehran Administration as a result of the regional effects of the instability and conflict climate in Afghanistan. The Fatimiyyun Brigade, which is a paramilitary structure affiliated to Iran and consisting of 50 thousand people; It is thought that if the Hazara Society is exposed to massacre by the Taliban as a result of a new internal conflict based on ethnic and religious grounds in Afghanistan, it will be assigned to Afghanistan by the Tehran administration. In the event of a war between Iran and Afghanistan, the conflict climate in Afghanistan, which is unstable, will turn into a regional crisis with its expansionist effect, and new immigrant movements will result. There will be new humanitarian crises.