A statistics-based demand-side management application including consumption model, dynamic tariff, and load shifting designs for residential consumers

Some major problems of the power system are, currently, the increasing demand for power, volatility of the changes in consumption and inefficient production of electrical energy. In addition, dependence on fossil energy sources leads to high carbon emission, thus affecting the environment negatively. Smart grid systems include various approaches developed to transform the energy grids into a more effective, reliable and environmentally-friendly structures. Demand Side Management (DSM) studies, as a part of the scope of this approach, contribute to the creation of a sustainable energy infrastructure by allowing customers to consciously manage their energy consumption. The aim of this thesis is to model the residential consumers' habits of electrical energy use and consumption behaviours in line with the objectives of Demand Side Management. A survey was conducted to model residential electrical devices. The findings of this survey formed the basis for the development of stochastic models designed for Demand Side Management applications. Monte Carlo sampling method was used to provide a comprehensive stochastic simulation of statistical data and related stochastic models based on the survey data. With the help of this approach within the scope of the simulation program, the data for 300 virtual consumers and their use of residential devices data were created. A dynamic tariff model was developed within the scope of DSM using the data of 300 virtual consumers. Besides, a stochastic DSM behaviour (DSMB) strategy was formed based on pricing and whether the consumer was at home or not. DSMB model was applied to 300 virtual consumers based on the dynamic tariff and three-time tariff and their consumption behaviours following DSMB were analysed from a technical and economic perspective. In addition, a graphical user interface was created in MATLAB to show the results and, with the post-DSMB process, the bills of consumers were positively improved with a more balanced consumption. It is concluded that the simulation results carried out in this study are useful in the context of Demand Side Management and can be used in the future to examine new dynamic price models or test some DSM functions. Keywords: Demand side management, Monte-Carlo sampling, Dynamic tariff, Load shifting.