Exchange rate change in the crisis period and effect of change on Turkey export

In this study; the effects of exchange rate volatility on Turkey's export have been analyzed econometrically for the period of January 2003-December 2017. Change in Exchange rate, refers to the volatility arise in exchange rate. The series of exchange rate volatility is calculated by using Chowdhurry (1993) method. Stationarity of the series are tested by ADF and PP methods and it is determined that two of the series are I (0) and two of them are I (1). Cointegration relationships between the series are investigated by Boundary Test method and the series are found to be cointegrated. The long and short-term relationships between the series are investigated by ARDL method. In the long-term analysis, it is determined that the export of Turkey increases by 1.33% and 0.85% respectively, when industrial production index increased and the real effective exchange rate decreased by 1%. It is seen that exchange rate volatility affects Turkey's export positively, but this effect is not statistically significant. In the short-term analysis, the effects of increases in industrial production index and real effective exchange rates on export are found to be positive and statistically insignificant. The effects of exchange rate volatility on export are also negative and statistically insignificant. The error correction mechanism of the model operates, that is, the results are reliable. Key Words: Exchange Rate Volatility, Export, Bounds Testing, ARDL.