Possible effects of global climate change on distribution areas of Fir (Abies spp.) species in Türkiye

Global climate change is considered an irreversible problem, which might directly or indirectly affect all the organisms and ecosystems on the earth and the world has to struggle with. Plants having no effective movement mechanism are the group that global climate change will affect the most. In order to minimize the species and population losses, it is important to estimate the changes in the available distribution areas of species and to ensure the migration mechanism, which the species will need, by the hand of humans. The present study aims to reveal how potential distribution areas of fir, which is among the significant tree species of Türkiye and significant portion of global distribution of which is in Turkey, will change from an altitudinal aspect because of the climate change. The results achieved showed that, because of the effects of global climate change, the suitable distribution areas of Abies nordmanniana subsp. nordmanniana will significantly decrease especially at high altitudes and that suitable distribution areas of Abies nordmanniana subsp. equi-trojani will reduce at altitudes higher than 1400m but increase generally at the altitudes between 200 and 600 m. Moreover, suitable distribution areas of Abies cilicica will shift towards higher altitudes.