The impact of global warming on agricultural sector in Turkey: An application of the ARDL model

Increase in temperature of earth and seas which results from increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in atmosphere is described as global warming. Climate change resulting from global warming is negatively affecting agriculture sector. In this study, it was aimed to reveal the effects of global warming on agriculture sector in Turkey from 1985-2016. For this purpose, the relation between agricultural GDP, wheat production, corn production, paddy production and the mean temperature, total rainfall and the amount of total carbon dioxide was estimated by using the ARDL model and annual data set. According to the results, there is a negative relation between agricultural GDP and carbon dioxide and the amount of rainfall. There was no negative correlation between temperature and agricultural GDP. However, the overall effect of climate change is negative. Although there is no significant correlation between rice production and temperature and precipitation variables in the analyses made, it has been found that the amount of carbon dioxide does not have a negative effect on rice production. When the relationship between corn production and climate change is examined, it has been determined that the amount of rainfall and carbon dioxide in the short term affects the production negatively. However, in the long run, there was no significant difference between corn production and climate change. The result is that there is no cointegration between wheat production and temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. Keywords: Global Warming, Climate Change, Agriculture Sector, ARDL.