Forecasting and evaluation of international capital movements in the perspective of institutional economic geography

Differences in the distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FCY) between countries appear to contribute to improvements in financial development. However, the exact causal mechanism through which capital flows flow is not always clearly stated (Kohler, 2022, p. 1511). When we look at the literature, it can be seen that subjects such as the types, causes, results, determinants of international capital movements and the causality relationship and development between economic growth have been studied. However, no study has been found on the prediction of international capital movements or the motivations that cause capital movements to differ. Considering that capital inherently belongs to any place and has a corporate identity, the institutional economic geography approach will constitute a productive starting point in the evaluation of international capital movements. In the study in question; In order to evaluate asymmetric international capital distribution from the perspective of institutional economic geography, panel data analysis was applied using FDI and YPY data from the long-term capital movements of 20 countries covering the period 2006-2020. Swamy-S Homogeneity test in the study. With the Swamy-S Homogeneity test in the study, it was determined that the model parameters were heterogeneous. Afterwards, cross-sectional dependence and unit root tests were examined, and as a result of the test using Westerlund (2007) as the cointegration test, the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables was determined. Due to the long-term relationship change between the variables, the long-term release was estimated by the panel mean group dynamic and the least squares method (DOLSMG) test. The error correction model was estimated with the extended mean group estimator (AMG) developed by Bond and Eberhardt (2009) and Eberhardt and Teal (2010), and according to the estimation results, it was determined that the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable was different for each country. At the same time, in this study, the FDI and FPI data of the countries were tested with the ANN regression model.