Long-term implications of the Syrian conflict on Türkiye-EU relations: The refugee question as a case study

This dissertation examines the long-term implications of the Syrian conflict and the refugee crisis on Türkiye-EU relations between 2011 and 2024. The study hypothesizes that the Syrian conflict not only had direct impacts on these relations but also led to long-term bilateral consequences, playing a dual role by fostering cooperation on one hand and fueling tensions on the other. Initially, the direct impacts were seen in the influx of Syrian refugees into Türkiye and EU countries, followed by the signing of the 2016 EU-Türkiye agreement. This agreement served as a starting point for cooperation between both sides, contributing to enhanced diplomatic relations and opening the door for potential progress in Türkiye's bid for EU membership. However, the conflict later became a source of growing tensions, particularly regarding Türkiye's military interventions in Syria, such as "Operation Olive Branch" (2018) and "Operation Peace Spring" (2019). While Türkiye viewed these operations as necessary for safeguarding its national security, several European countries expressed concerns about their impact on regional stability. Additionally, the 2020 Meric River crisis introduced new complexities to Türkiye-EU relations. The dissertation employs multiple approaches from international relations theories to illustrate how these dynamics were influenced by national interests, security concerns, and identity politics. While cooperation on managing the refugee crisis represented a positive step in bilateral relations, differences regarding Türkiye's military interventions and their political and security implications have led to deepening tensions. The study concludes that the Syrian conflict was not merely a humanitarian or security issue but has become a key factor in international relations, reshaping bilateral relations, including Türkiye's relationship with the EU, particularly regarding its EU membership bid.