Spatial use and development analysis of Tekirdag city with the LUCIS model

Cities have always been in a change and transformation since the existence of the urban phenomenon. This change and transformation has accelerated with factors directly related to space such as the increase in population, the development of technology, people wanting to live in different places, and the need for new settlement areas. While only 30% of the world's population lived in cities in 1950, this figure reached 54% in 2014 and is predicted to reach 66% in 2050. Urban growth, which expands with the increase in population, is seen as one of the most important problems of metropolitan cities today. In recent years, to prevent this and to create sustainable urban spaces, to determine the current land use / land cover of cities, to develop various models for the future, It has become a necessity to make forward-looking predictions. While the total population of Tekirdag city and its surroundings, which is the study area, was 113,510 in 2000, this number increased to 183,829 in 2020. With the increase in population, the spatial use of the city was also shaped, and settlement areas expanded from 1576.53 (8.82%) hectares to 3508.56 (19.63%) hectares. The settlement areas, which have expanded more than twice in such a short time in land use, undoubtedly threaten other areas (agriculture and natural resources) in the study area and cause settlement to prevail in some places. If this change and transformation in land use is not planned and balanced, it will lead to a decrease in agricultural and protection areas in Tekirdag, the emergence of irregular settlement and industrialization areas, and an increase in environmental pollution. In order to prevent unplanned and irregular urban development and to ensure the continuity of the existing agricultural and conservation areas, the temporal and spatial changes of the land cover/land use of the city of Tekirdag and its immediate surroundings have been determined; In order to make the growth of the city more controlled, the most suitable places for settlement were tried to be determined. In this context, the spatial use and development analysis of the city of Tekirdag was carried out with the LUCIS (Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy) model, which is a new method that is frequently used in site selection suitability analyzes. Within the scope of the study, first in accordance with the method principle, many sub-goals, objectives and general objectives related to these natural and human factors that will affect the settlement, agriculture and protection areas in the city of Tekirdag and its vicinity were determined, data layers were prepared and models were created. Preference and final suitability areas were determined from the suitability analyzes obtained as a result of running the models, and finally, potential land uses and possible future land use conflicts were obtained. As a result of the study, it provided the opportunity to determine the expansion areas of the city as well as to determine the future development axes. In this context, this study, which is thought to be important for the city of Tekirdag and its surroundings in terms of sustainable city management and future investments, will also set an important example for other cities in Turkey.