Determining the potential distribution of formica rufa nests using GIS with maximum entropy model

This study was carried out in the forests of Kastamonu Regional Directorate of Forestry, Kastamonu Forest Enterprise, in 2022-2023, and a total of 267 Formica rufa nests were determined in the study area. Habitat preferences of F. rufa were evaluated according to stand, topographic and climate variables. When the variables were assessed separately, the nests preferred full coverage stands, medium site index, shady aspects, productive stands, altitudes up to 1800 m, low slope area, low temperatures, precipitation lower than 48 mm, and high solar radiation stands. Also, in this study, suitable habitat selection for F. rufa was modeled using 30 different variables with the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach, and a habitat suitability map was created. The model's accuracy was evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the Area Under Curve (AUC) was calculated as 0.941 in the training data and 0.946 in the test data. The most contributing variable to the model in the habitat selection of F. rufa is the development stage, constituting 39.5% of the model. In addition, the development stage, productivity, and precipitation of the driest quarter (BIO7) variables constitute 75.1% of the model. According to the habitat suitability map, 79% of the F. rufa nests identified as a result of field work are located in suitable and very suitable areas. F. rufa group, which is widely found in the forests of the northern hemisphere and has a significant impact on forest ecosystems, is also the most remarkable bioindicator species in forest ecosystems. Revealing the variables that affect the habitat selection of these species is essential for the protection and management of these species.