Middle powers in the changing international order: Malaysia and Türkiye in comparative perspective

Classical international relations theories primarily focus on the relationship between great powers. To a lesser extent, a significant amount of research focuses on the asymmetrical relations between great powers and middle powers. However, the middle powers struggling between two great powers constitute a grey zone that needs deeper investigation. The present research contributes to the theoretical understanding of the middle powers in the changing international order over the last two decades through the cases of Türkiye and Malaysia. Significant transformations have taken place since the 2000s, with the rise of non-Western powers, including China and Russia. Due to fast globalization and growing interdependence between actors in the international system, "to choose is to lose" understanding became the common denominator for the foreign policy orientation of middle powers struggling with intense great power competition. Therefore, the cross-regional and cross-sectional comparative perspectives on Türkiye and Malaysia contribute to the theoretical understanding and empirical assessment of the behaviors of the middle powers in the changing international order. The present research analyzes the positioning of the middle powers at the global, regional, and domestic levels by relying on 45 elite interviews conducted in Malaysia and Türkiye, first and secondary sources relevant to the process-tracing analysis, and the comparative framework. The findings of the research show that middle powers aim to seek foreign policy autonomy in the era of great power competition. The autonomy-seeking behavior of middle powers manifests in their unilateral policy initiatives, diversification efforts by engaging with non-traditional partners, and participation in regional and international platforms. The degree of autonomy-seeking in foreign policy decision-making depends on three critical factors: security challenges, the nature of interdependence with major powers, and legitimation efforts of the domestic political elites. The aspiration for the quest for autonomy, however, is limited by the capabilities of middle powers in both material and ideational regards. The research results show that the greater the mismatch between aspiration and capabilities, the more likely that decision-makers miscalculate outcomes of critical foreign policy choices.