Migration issues: Turkey and the European Union

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study is to clarify issues surrounding migration from Turkey to the European Union (EU). After 1960s, Turkey was one of those developing countries sending temporary workers to the developed countries in Europe, mostly to Germany. There is a fear that if Turkey were given admission to the EU there will be a massive migration flow from Turkey to the other member countries of the EU, especially to Germany because of strong network effects already existing. Both empirical and theoretical research methodologies were utilised in this study. The empirical part of the study consists of two different applications. One is the application of a rationality approach to explain migrant’s decision based on exploitation of all known information affecting the future net present value of the earnings. Second is the application of a simple time series model developed by Hatton. The aim is to capture the effects of both short and long term variables on migration flows from Turkey to Germany. The theoretical part of the study develops a theoretical framework for the migration decision that takes into consideration the impact on uncertainty of some of the important economic and social variables that are addressed by the EU membership and institutions. It emphasizes future expectations of living conditions and the level of uncertainty associated with them as a key variable in making migration decisions. The recommendations which are developed in this thesis suggest that not the accession of Turkey to the EU but the rejection of Turkey’s EU membership will increase uncertainty for the future economic and social prospects in Turkey stimulating the current level of migration. Keywords: Accession, European Union, Germany, Migration, Turkey. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………