Energy losses in electrical installations and strategies for enhancing efficiency in Muş province

Due to the high cost of electricity generation, the efficient and accurate use of electrical energy is of critical importance. One of the major challenges facing the energy sector in Turkey is the widespread occurrence of electricity theft. Predicting such unauthorized usage is a crucial issue that must be addressed to ensure effective energy management. It is essential to distinguish between technical losses and non-technical (illegal) losses, as they represent different phenomena and require separate analytical approaches. This distinction enables more accurate planning of investments and improvement strategies for electrical networks. Consequently, it becomes possible to prioritize whether regional investments should focus on reducing technical losses or combating illegal usage, thus supporting more data-driven decision-making processes. Estimating electricity theft has the potential to contribute significantly not only to energy efficiency but also to socioeconomic development, providing a solid foundation for future improvements. In this study, existing optimization methods for reducing energy losses and theft in Muş Province were examined, and potential enhancements were explored. To analyze technical losses, transformer modeling was performed using Comsol Multiphysics, enabling detailed assessment of losses within transformers. Regarding non-technical losses, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) time series analysis model was employed to forecast electricity losses and theft in Muş Province through the year 2030. These forecasts are intended to provide predictive insight for planning future studies related to non-technical losses in electrical energy.