The possible effects of the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTİP) on Turkey's trade

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a new generation and mega regional free trade agreement that officially began to be negotiated between the United States and the European Union (EU) in 2013. If realized, the deal will create a trading bloc representing nearly half of the global GDP, foreign direct investment and trade in goods and services. In addition to eliminating tariffs, TTIP is foreseen to significantly reduce non-tariff barriers and to set out new rules for global trading system. Turkey, because of its strong political and economic ties to U.S. and the EU, will be one of the countries most affected by transatlantic deal. The aim of this thesis is to discuss the possible effects of TTIP on Turkey's trade and find out a TTIP scenario that is most favorable to Turkey. To this end, this study employs some foresight methods completing one another: scenario building, SWOT analysis and backcasting. These methods are backed up by a broad account of the evolution of the global trading system from mercantilism to new generation and mega trade deals, examination of trade and trade policies of U.S., the EU and Turkey and a deep examination of impact analyses about TTIP. When and if TTIP comes to life, being out of it is bound to bring about substantial costs for Turkey because of the agreement's trade diversion effects and deficiencies of Turkey's Customs Union arrangement with the European Union. The deeper and more comprehensive TTIP is, the costlier it will be for Turkey to be out of the deal. The most favorable scenario for Turkey is joining a TTIP that is as ambitious as possible. Turkey's participation in such a deal could happen through updating the Customs Union, signing a parallel free trade agreement with U.S., applying to be a member of an inclusive TTIP and agreeing to comply with the membership criteria or achieving its long standing goal of becoming a member of the EU.