Orta gelir tuzağı: Türkiye örneği (1980-2018)

In recent research, middle income countries remain in the same income group for many years and cannot rise to an upper income group. This problem faced by middle income countries has brought the concept of middle income trap to the agenda. The middle income trap is defined as the fact that countries have been stuck at the middle income level for many years as a result of declining growth rates of their economies and their inability to transition to the higher income level. This situation causes the income disparities between developed countries and developing countries to increase more and more. This has led to more discussion of the middle income trap. The aim of this study is to examine and investigate the theoretical background of the middle income trap concept and to present the risk of middle income trap for Turkey in terms of 1980-2018 period and to present some policy proposals for Turkey's economy to grow faster. In the study, GDP per capita values at fixed prices for 2011 are used annually. Based on the approach of Robertson and Ye (2013), econometric analyses were conducted through unit root tests that allowed conventional and structural breakage. ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller), Zivot-Andrews (1992), which allows one structural fracture, Narayan and Popp (2010), which allows two structural fractures and Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009), which allows up to five fractures, tests are used. According to the results of unit root tests, Turkey is not in the middle income trap. The concept of income groups, income traps and middle income traps is explained in the first part of the study. In the second part, studies about the middle income trap in the international literature are mentioned. In the last chapter, the third chapter, econometric studies have been carried out to determine whether Turkey is entering the middle income spiral and some policy proposals have been presented to enable the Turkish economy to grow faster.