Para politikasının Türkiye'de seçilmiş makroiktisadi değişkenler üzerindeki etkilerinin zaman serisi analizi

In this study, it is aimed to detect the relationship and the causality between monetary policy and the macroeconomic indicators that keep the pulse of the economic life in Turkey. The independent variable of the analysis was determined as the policy rate. Housing, producer, consumer, stock, motor vehicles and oil prices; retail sales, exchange rate, credit expansion, industrial production, long-term government bonds, money supply and compound leading indicators are also the dependent variables. ARDL limit and Toda- Yamamoto causality tests were used in the empirical analysis. In the results of the bound test; In the long run, a significant relationship was found between producer, consumer and motor vehicle prices, retail sales, exchange rate, private sector credit expansion, long- term bonds, money supply and leading indicators with monetary policy. While the policy rate has a significant relationship with house prices only in the short run; it has not a significant relationship with M2, M3, consumer and producer-based motor vehicles prices, credit extension, retail sales in the short run. The causality test results has detected the bi-directional causality between policy rate and M2, M3, consumer-based motor vehicles and producer prices, credit expansion and exchange rate; uni-directional causality from policy rate to M1, consumer prices, house and producer-based motor vehicles prices, retail sales, long-term bonds and leading indicators. Any relationship was found between industrial production, stocks and oil prices and the policy rate.