Spatial prediction of the distribution areas of Pinus brutia (Red pine) in Turkey and its future distribution areas (2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100) under climate change using the maxent model

Conservation of biodiversity is of great importance for the sustainability of ecosystems. The aim of this study is to estimate the current distribution of Pinus brutia Ten. (Red Pine) species, which is widespread in Turkey, and its future distribution areas depending on climate change between 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100 using the MaxEnt species distribution model. In the study, environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of Pinus brutia Ten. and the potential effects of climate change on these factors were analyzed. For this purpose, changes in the distribution of the species over time were modeled by considering current climate data and future climate scenarios. According to the SSP2-4.5 scenario of the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model; an increase of 2,640 km² in suitable areas and 2,107 km² in very suitable areas during the 2041–2060 period; An increase of 2,277 km² in suitable areas and 1,268 km² in very suitable areas is projected during the 2061–2080 period; a decrease of 207 km² in suitable areas and 1,787 km² in very suitable areas is projected during the 2081–2100 period. Under the same scenario, according to the HAD-GEM3-GC31-LL model; an increase of 565 km² in suitable areas and 604 km² in very suitable areas is projected during the 2041–2060 period; an increase of 1,616 km² in suitable areas and 396 km² in very suitable areas is observed during the 2061–2080 period; and an increase of 1,689 km² in suitable areas and 116 km² decrease in very suitable areas is observed during the 2081–2100 period. According to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, in the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model; During the 2041–2060 period, a decrease of 869 km² in suitable areas and an increase of 1,278 km² in very suitable areas are predicted; during the 2061–2080 period, an increase of 1,083 km² in suitable areas and 1,620 km² in very suitable areas are predicted; during the 2081–2100 period, an increase of 317 km² in suitable areas and 165 km² in very suitable areas are predicted. In the HAD-GEM3-GC31-LL model, according to the same scenario; during the 2041–2060 period, an increase of 3,353 km² in suitable and very suitable areas are predicted; during the 2061–2080 period, an increase of 3,360 km² in suitable areas and 1,922 km² in very suitable areas are predicted; during the 2081–2100 period, a decrease of 965 km² in suitable areas and 807 km² increase in very suitable areas are predicted. The findings show that the Red Pine species has a significant adaptation capacity under both medium and high emission scenarios, and that there have been significant increases in very suitable habitat areas, especially during some periods. The species can resist high temperatures and reduced precipitation conditions, and can maintain its distribution in some areas or expand to new areas. This shows that Red Pine can continue its existence in forest ecosystems under future climate scenarios and is a species that should be taken into consideration in forest management strategies.