Analysis of Turkish foreign policy towards the Eastern Mediterranean issue from the perspective of realist theories of alliance

The Eastern Mediterranean has remained a strategic maritime basin throughout history. Especially since the 2000s, the rich energy resources discovered in the region have made the Eastern Mediterranean of great importance in terms of energy in recent years. This region is home to rich natural gas and oil reserves. Especially around the island of Cyprus, off the coast of Egypt, Israel and Lebanon, there are large natural gas and oil reserves. However, the discovery and extraction of these energy resources has brought both advantages and security problems among the countries in the region. Accordingly, the continental shelf and maritime jurisdiction areas should be determined for the extraction of energy resources. However, this issue causes disputes among the countries in the region. In particular, there is a serious dispute between the SCGA and Turkey over the continental shelf boundaries. There are conflicts of interest among the countries in the region in terms of sharing energy resources and transferring them to international markets. The fact that each country wants to make the best use of its energy resources leads to both cooperation opportunities and conflict risks among the countries in the region. This study analyzes the reasons for the transformation in Turkey's foreign policy towards the Eastern Mediterranean between 2018 and 2021 within the framework of the balance of threat theory. It also analyzes the reasons for Turkey's hard power-based transformation in the Eastern Mediterranean and the factors that pushed Turkey to form an alliance with Libya in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this context, the definitions of the concept of alliance in the literature are examined and how realist alliance theories evaluate this concept is explained. Stephen Walt's balance of threat theory has been found to have deficiencies in explaining the transformation in Turkey's foreign policy and these deficiencies have been complemented by utilizing constructivist and neoliberal theories. As a result, it is observed that Turkey's foreign policy transformation towards the Eastern Mediterranean has developed a balancing behavior towards threat perception in parallel with the alliances formed in the region.