International market selection in competitive markets: Suggestion of an integrated model

International market selection (IMS) is a topic that is highly discussed in both academia and business world. Numerous models have been developed in order to identify the international markets with the highest market opportunity. However, many of these models are lack of either theoretical background, ease of application or empirical testability. In this study, the models in the liretature are critized according to the criteria of parsimony, applicability, generalizability and theoretical background. Following these evaluations; a UPS model is developed for products / sectors which are exposed to high competition in global area. The model is based on theories of Factor Endowment, Gravity Model, Resource Based Approach and The International Product Life Cycle Theory. In this model, both variables of multi-criteria market-based approaches and the Net Shift Share Analysis are used. So that the model is called Integrated Model. The original aspects of this multi-criteria model can be summarized as; contex of product based global competition, variables which are publicly available, easiness of the technique and adaptability to any kind of product. The Integrated Model is tested in five different country-product samples in two different periods of time. After that, the forecasting power of Integrated Model is compared with Sector-Based International Market Potential Index (Global Edge, 2017b) and Trade Off Model (Papadopoulos vd., 2002) in the same samples. The dependent variable used in these tests is a revised version of Net Shift Share Analysis. In this version the exports realized in there years after the forecast year, are considered. So, this variable provides a more accurate market opportunity measurement. In the findings it is seen that Integrated Model is valid and has a more powerful forecasting ability than the other models. However, the fact that the reliability problem in secondary data distorts the model results is an important constraint. Therefore, it is emphasized that the results should be evaluated carefully especially when applied to developing countries. International trade data which is used in the calculation of both dependent and independent varibles of the model are reported by both the exporting and the importing countries. Consequently, it is possible to take the measure of reliability. In the future researches, improvement in this area is recommended.