Renewable energy transition in developing countries: A comparative analysis of Türkiye, Poland, and Bulgaria

This dissertation investigates how the renewable energy transition (RET) is governed institutionally in energy-importing developing countries. Theoretically, it integrates Historical Institutionalism and the Multi-Level Perspective to argue that RET is not simply a technological or market-driven shift, but a gradual and often complex process of institutional transformation embedded within existing energy regimes. The study uses Türkiye, Poland, and Bulgaria as comparative case studies, analyzing their RET pathways under similar temporal (2011–2023) and external pressures (e.g., the Paris Agreement, EU directives, and the Russia-Ukraine War). The central hypothesis posits that RET in energy-importing developing countries is primarily shaped by path dependencies and the persistence of entrenched institutional structures. Institutional change is shown to follow incremental, interest-aligned trajectories rather than normative or value-driven transformations. The second hypothesis highlights that the coherence between mezzo-level institutions and micro- level actors helps foster more predictable and stable RET processes. Türkiye displays partial coherence, Poland exhibits externally pressured yet institutionally constrained coherence due to the dominance of vested interests in the incumbent energy mix, while Bulgaria demonstrates externally driven coherence limited by regulatory inertia and a state-centric governance structure, resulting in adaptation shaped more by EU compliance than domestic initiative. The third hypothesis distinguishes the variation in institutional change trajectories across countries. In Poland, a combination of high iv discretionary power and strong vested interests has led to inaction—characterizing a drifted governance model. Bulgaria, under structural inertia and low domestic demand, has followed a compelled layering pattern driven by external compliance rather than domestic initiative. Türkiye's path, shaped by market demand and regulatory activism, has evolved into a gated conversion model, where transformation is selective, filtered by incumbent power and centralized discretion. The dissertation makes both conceptual and empirical contributions to the literature. Conceptually, it extends Mahoney and Thelen's (2010) institutional change typology by proposing new forms such as "compelled layering" and "gated conversion." Empirically, it offers a rare in-depth analysis of RET governance in energy-importing developing countries—an area often neglected in transition studies—demonstrating how institutional change is mediated by actor relations, regime persistence, and regulatory openness.