Forecasting soil erosion of the Kızılırmak basin for the 2040-2060 and 2060-2080 periods using Rusle soil loss forecast andChelsa global climate forecast models

Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem that causes the loss of soil on Earth over time due to factors such as wind, water, ice and human activities. This process reduces agricultural productivity, pollutes water resources, damages ecosystems, contributes to climate change and threatens human settlements. Prevention and control of soil erosion is a critical part of sustainable environmental management. The importance of soil erosion is therefore highlighted as a global problem affecting natural resources and human life worldwide. In this research, current and future soil losses of the Kızılırmak Basin were estimated at a spatial scale using the Revised Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and measures for sustainable environmental management were discussed. Firstly, according to the RUSLE model, the current soil loss of the Kızılırmak Basin was calculated on a spatial scale using GIS (Geographic Information Systems), and then in the second stage, the future soil loss was mapped using the RCP4.5 scenario of the CCSM-4 climate model. As a result, the annual average of soil losses in the study area was calculated as 0.528 (ton/ha/year) in the 2020 period, 0.504 (ton/ha/year) in the 2040-2060 period and 0.482 (ton/ha/year) in the 2060-2080 period. There was a decrease of 0.46 (tons/ha/year) between 2020 and 2060-2080. The reason for this is that the CCSM-4 climate model predicts a decrease in the amount of precipitation due to global warming in the future. Although it is estimated that there will be a decrease in the amount of erosion, it is predicted that the total amount of erosion that will occur for many years will pose a great risk for the Kızılırmak Basin. Key words: Soil erosion, Kızılırmak Basin, RUSLE model, Chelsa Global Climate Prediction Model, Geographic Information Systems.