An implementation for the determination of the appropriate request estimation method in material management in health care facilities

Estimating the amount of medical supplies in the healthcare system accurately enables decision makers to predict service needs and make informed decisions about managing resources and purchasing consumables over time. In this thesis study on demand forecasting methods; The methods discussed in detail are time series methods. In the study, using the monthly demand data between the years 2015-2018 of the nine types of materials most frequently used in the orthopedics department of a Public Hospital in Samsun, the role of the hospital group B, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) was tried to be determined with the help of Minitab 18 statistics program by considering the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria. As a result of the application, although the most ideal demand forecasting method is different for each material, it is determined that the Simple Linear Regression Method and the Cumulative Holt-Winters Methods (0.2-0.2-0.2) are the most suitable demand forecasting methods. Key words: Supply Chain Management, Material Management, Demand Forecasting, Time Series.