Shifting alliances among nationalist elites: Factors that shape elite cooperation in nationalist movements

What are the factors that facilitate or hinder cooperation among nationalist elites? To answer this question, this thesis studies nationalist movements that are composed of various factions at different points in time. I deploy an original network dataset of the nationalist elites in late Ottoman Empire from three different ethnic backgrounds and observe their relations over a period of 25 years from 1895 to 1920. To analyze the network data on the period, I use pooled temporal exponential random graph models (TERGM) and study two kinds of impacts on the socialization of the nationalist elites. I initially test the impact of factors that are endogenous to the group and focus on the role of popularity of individual elites and dense organizational patterns. Then, I analyze the effect of elements external to the network of elites. The thesis suggests that the impact of ideological factions, foreign support, and threat perception among the elites provide strong indicators for the likelihood of tie formation within the nationalist network. While ideological similarity and threat perception generally increase the likelihood of cooperation among nationalist elites, more radical factions tend to be less popular with fewer chances of cooperation. Periods of repression on nationalist elites tend to mitigate the negative effect of radical ideologies and favor tighter organizational patterns across different ideological factions within the movement.