Simulating sustainable urban growth by using GIS and MCE based CA. The case of Famagusta, Nort Cyprus

ABSTRACT: This thesis utilizes “Geographical Information Systems” (GIS), “Multi Criteria Evaluation” (MCE) with “Cellular Automata” (CA) for simulating Sustainable urban growth scenarios for Famagusta and represents “Do Nothing” and “Sustainable” scenario-based spatial simulations of the City. Under Do Nothing scenario, Markov Chain probability analysis with CA models is used with temporal land use datasets based on the images from 2002 and 2011. It shows that, Famagusta is diverging from sustainable development. Future expansions of both medium dense and low dense urban zones are generally sited close to the existing built-up urban areas that are connected with road network. A similar model is employed for the application of Sustainable Urban Development policies by Policy Driven Scenario. As a main goal, Sustainable Urban Development includes three main criteria, Compactness, Environmental Protection and Social Equity. Additionally, Brownfield Development, Distance from Center, Soil Characteristics, Soil Productivity, Vegetation, Environmentally Protected Areas, Distance from Local Services, Distance from Open Space are used as criteria with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Having such a simulation with the combination of MCE, GIS and CA has several advantages. It presents possible alternative spatial development for the future. Moreover, it makes decision making steps easier for town planners and support spatial planning process. Finally, it creates more realistic results of our choices are related to urban growth. Keywords: Sustainable Urban Development, Geographical Information Systems, Multi Criteria Evaluation, Cellular Automataiv. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………