Socio-technical transitions toward sustainable cities: Stakeholders' preferences for the future of mobility in Istanbul

One of the most significant decarbonization challenges of the 21st century is transitioning urban mobility systems toward sustainability, particularly in megacities where infrastructure lock-ins and socio-technical complexities hinder decarbonization efforts. While technological advancements are often put forward as principal solutions, this thesis argues that transitions toward sustainability also require simultaneous shifts in mobility cultures, governance structures, and changes in stakeholder priorities in parallel to such technocentric approaches. The research critiques the technocentric narratives of "smart cities" and integrates socio-technical transitions theory to explore how technological innovation, social practices, and institutional dynamics interact. Through a mixed-methods approach, the study develops four future mobility scenarios for Istanbul—Business as Usual, Smart but Not Sustainable, Sustainable but Not Smart, and Smart and Sustainable—based on a STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political) analysis. These scenarios are evaluated by semi-structured interviews with 19 stakeholders, including policymakers, industry experts, NGOs, academics, and citizens. Findings reveal that while stakeholders have a strong preference for sustainability-oriented scenarios (C and D), their expectations lean towards a "Smart but Not Sustainable" future (Scenario B), underscoring the prevailing influence of technology over environmental priorities. The study introduces "discourse paths" that categorize stakeholder perspectives based on different views on technological development, environmental concerns, or market alignment. Furthermore, the research highlights significant governance challenges, including power asymmetries and the marginalization of critical voices within mobility decision-making processes.