Sponsoring rebellion: Why do some paramilitary groups rebel against their home-states while others remain loyal?

Why do some paramilitary groups rebel against their home states, while others remain loyal? This thesis investigates this question by proposing a causal mechanism centered on the dynamics between paramilitary groups, their home states, and external sponsors. It argues that rebellion becomes likely when a paramilitary group receives increased external support during a period of deteriorating relations between the home state and the sponsoring external actor. In such cases, support is no longer a neutral form of capacity-building but a strategic tool of leverage, enabling paramilitary groups to expand their autonomy and confront state authority. To test this hypothesis, the study adopts a comparative case study approach using the Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD). It analyzes three major paramilitary groups: Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and Syria's National Defense Forces (NDF). All three emerged in contexts of internal conflict, operate in fragile or authoritarian states, and have received significant foreign support. Yet their outcomes diverge sharply. The RSF began rebelling against Sudan's government in 2019, and the scale of its confrontation continued escalating amid the breakdown of Sudan–UAE relations and intensified Emirati backing. In contrast, both the PMF and NDF have remained largely loyal to their home states despite also benefiting from sustained external support. By tracing how foreign backing interacts with inter-state diplomatic dynamics, this thesis shows that rebellion is most likely when sponsorship increases under adversarial political conditions. Adding a layer into understanding paramilitary behavior, and why it is not only a function of domestic dynamics that cannot be understood in isolation from the geopolitical contexts surrounding them as it is also deeply embedded in the shifting landscape of inter-state relations. The findings offer new insights into how paramilitary behavior evolves in conflict prone states and contributes to debates on proxy warfare, external intervention, and state fragmentation.