The future of Afghanistan and its security implications under

Afghanistan, located at a geopolitical junction where South Asia-Central Asia and the Middle East intersect, has attracted the attention of great powers that wanted to dominate Eurasia throughout history. In this context, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan between 1979 and 1988; But in this process, the Soviet Union could not defeat the Mujahideen and had to withdraw from Afghanistan. The Mujahideen's failure to share power after the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan dragged the country into civil war, and in this environment, the Taliban began to be perceived as an actor maintaining order. However, during the first Taliban period, it was seen that Afghanistan turned into an open prison, rights and freedoms were suspended, and Pashtun-Diobendi hegemony was established in the country under the name of "Islamic Emirate". In this process, it has also been seen that Afghanistan, isolated from the international community, has become a safe haven for terrorist organizations. As a matter of fact, after the attacks carried out by the terrorist organization Al Qaeda on September 11, 2001, the USA invaded Afghanistan within the scope of "Operation Enduring Freedom". Despite the 20-year American occupation, a healthy order could not be built in Afghanistan, and although the Taliban regime was overthrown, the Taliban could not be destroyed. In this case, the failure of nation building in Afghanistan and the corruption of the occupation period administrations were effective. Later, seeing that it could not destroy the Taliban, Washington carried out a negotiation process with the Taliban and eventually the Doha Agreement was signed on February 29, 2020. In accordance with the agreement in question, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan on August 31, 2021 took place before the inter-Afghan negotiations were concluded, and the Taliban captured Kabul in a short time. Thus, the second Taliban era began in Afghanistan. However, the Haqqani Network, one of the power centers within the Taliban, continues to have relations with the Al Qaeda terrorist organization. On the other hand, ISKP, the branch of the terrorist organization DAESH, is also destabilizing Afghanistan. Moreover, the Panshir Movement, which carries out armed resistance against the Taliban, continues to exist. This brings Afghanistan's security and future into question. In this thesis, the security situation of Afghanistan is examined within the framework of possible scenarios.