Ticaret yapan ülkelerin doğurganlık ve yaşam uzunlukları arasındaki farklılıkların sonuçları: Bir 3x2x2 çakışan-nesiller genel denge analizi

ABSTRACTTHE FREE TRADE IMPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENTIALFERTILITY AND LONGEVITY BETWEEN COUNTRIES:A 3x2x2 OVERLAPPING-GENERATIONSGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSISArbatlı, Cemal ErenM.A. in EconomicsSupervisor: Assoc. Prof. Serdar SayanJuly 2006This study employs two variants of a three-generation, two-sector and two-factoroverlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty and altruistic agents toinvestigate the welfare implications of fertility and longevity differentials betweentrading countries. In the first model (the basic model), agents optimistically assume thatthey will survive into old age with certainty and have a constant saving rate. Agents inthe second model (the anticipation model), on the other hand, correctly anticipate themortality rates and adjust their saving rates accordingly. The models are solved bothunder autarky and a Heckscher-Ohlin free trade setting. The analytical results on thedirection of the effects of changing population dynamics under lifetime certainty arecomplemented by numeric results under lifetime uncertainty that provide importantinsights on how increasing longevity and declining fertility rates may affect the welfareprospects of countries that are at different stages of demographic transition. The solutionsreveal that longevity differentials are sufficient to create grounds for trade betweencountries with equal as well as different population sizes. In a closed economy, whenmortality rates are perfectly anticipated, the marginal benefit of higher longevitygradually diminishes as the life expectancy increases and/or the fertility rate decreases.Consistently with this result, as demographic transition proceeds, free trade underlongevity differentials tends to make the low-mortality country better off and the high-mortality country worse off compared to autarky.Keywords: Dynamic trade, Life expectancy, Fertility, Lifetime uncertainty, Overlapping-generations general equilibrium model, Heckscher-Ohlin.