Evaluation of the impact of electric vehicles on emissions in public transportation: Türkiye example

The change in carbon emissions in case the entire diesel-fueled bus and minibus fleet used in public transportation in Turkey is converted to electric vehicles has been analyzed. In the study, firstly, the annual carbon emission of internal combustion engine vehicles was calculated using official emission factors determined according to the number of vehicles, vehicle-kilometer statistics and fuel types. The electric vehicle scenario was created considering Turkey's electricity generation resource structure. It was assumed that electric vehicles consume an average of 0.6 kWh/km of energy and emission calculations were made according to the Well-to-Wheel (EWTW) method based on the carbon density of the Turkish electricity grid formed according to renewable, coal and natural gas ratios. As a result of the calculations, the annual carbon emission of the bus and minibus fleet with internal combustion engines as of 2022 was determined as 12,521.57 GgCO₂. It was predicted that this value would decrease to 7,209.55 GgCO₂ if the entire fleet were converted to electric vehicles. This means a decrease of approximately 42.4%. The results show that restructuring public transportation in Turkey with electric vehicles has significant potential to reduce carbon emissions nationwide.