Determination of potential distribution areas due to climate change in Taurus fir subspecies (A. cilicica subsp. isaurica and A. cilicica subsp. cilicica) using MaxEnt modelling method

Sustainability in the resource management process in forest ecosystems should be realized by evaluating ecological, economic and social functions together. This situation is of great importance for the planning and implementation of forest management activities. One of the most important factors affecting the structuring pattern, structure and ecology of forests is climate. Climate has long been identified as the primary control on the geographic distribution of plants. Therefore, a significant redistribution of plants can be expected in response to climate change. The impact of ecological differentiation caused by climate change on the forestry sector is slower but more decisive than other influencing factors. The Mediterranean basin is one of the regions that will be most affected under changing climate conditions. In this thesis, the distribution areas of Abies cilicica subspecies [A. c. subsp. cilicica (Antoine et Kotschy) Carrière ve A. c. subsp. isaurica (Antoine et Kotschy) Carrière], which are important primary species naturally distributed in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, in the last three plan periods (first plans-serialized plans, first digital plans and last period plans) were examined and the distribution models of both taxa were created for the future. As a result of the study; it was determined that the distribution areas of both subspecies have shrunk in the last 50 years. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) analysis revealed the potential areas of both subspecies in the coming years and the change in their distribution areas. MaxEnt analysis was conducted for the years 2040 and 2060 according to the SSP245 and SSP585 climate scenarios, using 6 climate variables (Bio1, Bio5, Bio11, Bio12, Bio15 and Bio18) and two topographic variables (aspect and elevation), which have a larger effect. AUC values of 0.9183 for A. c. subsp. cilicica SSP245 2040, 0.9239 for SSP245 2060, 0.9106 for SSP585 2040 and 0.8955 for SSP585 2060 were obtained. AUC values of 0.8959 in SSP245 2040, 0.9288 in SSP245 2060, 0.9043 in SSP585 2040 and 0.9172 in SSP585 2060 were obtained for A. c. subsp. isaurica. Given the markedly elevated model success values, it was postulated that the A. c. subsp. cilicica and A. c. subsp. isaurica subspecies will persist in their observed decline over the forthcoming years. A. c. subsp. cilicica tends to move its distribution to the north and north-east in terms of latitude and to higher altitudes in terms of elevation. A. c. subsp. isaurica is predicted to move its distribution to the northern regions and higher altitudes in terms of latitude.