A research on consumer loans determinants: Implementation from Turkey 2006- 2011

Consumer credit is a kind of credit which is given to a consumer in the field of goods and services without any commercial purpose. It is observed that consumer credits have increased since the date when 2001 economic crisis negative effects in Turkey started to disappear. While consumer credits are increasing, there has been a serious change in some factors such as interest, inflation, economic growth and expectations which are considered to be the most outstanding determinants of these credits. In this study, the effect of the inflation and economic growth rate on the individual consumer credits in Turkey between 2006 and 2011 is analysed. The study has two hypotheses. First, the increase in inflation rate has affected the amount of consumer credit use. Second, the increase in economic growth rate has affected the amount of consumer credit use. Accordingly, the effect of inflation and economic growth rate on consumer credits is examined through johansen cointegration analysis, granger causality analysis and multiple regression analysis. Consumer price index data (inflation), outlay method, gross domestic product data (economic growth) and consumer credit data provided by participation banks (consumer credits) are used in parameter selections. After the analysis, it is observed that first hypothesis is not confirmed valid when tested. In other words, the inflation rate hasn?t affected the consumer credits. But second hypothesis is confirmed. It is precipitated that national economy has been affected positively due to the additive effect of economic growth on consumer credits. Keywords: Financial System, Bank, Banking Credit, Credit Types, Consumer Credits, Inflation, Economic Growth, Regression Analysis .