Analysis of Turkey-USA relations from the perspective of international trade (2008-2018)

This study is aimed to evaluate U.S.A and Turkey bilateral trade relations that covers the period between the years 2008-2018. For this purpose, initially Turkish American relations are discussed, mutual commercial agreements and key issues encountered in relations and steps that could be taken to improve bilateral trade between the two countries are mentioned. In the second, third and fourth parts of the study, foreign trade of Turkish and American economies are examined on the basis of countries and product groups, following mutual import and export analysis between Turkey and USA have been performed. Additionally, the economies of both countries were compared in terms of growth, employment, inflation and foreign trade. Developments and future of trade relations between Turkey and the U.S. are discussed within the context of an eleven year period (2008-2018) analyzed in this study. In the second part of the research, it has been observed that Turkey's share in total exports has increased gradually since 2014, when the USA was among the top 10 countries to which Turkey exports and imports in the 2008-2018 period. In the same period, exports to the USA and the number of Turkish firms exporting to the USA doubled, while the value of imports from the USA did not change dramatically, but a constant foreign trade deficit with the USA was observed. When evaluated in terms of economic structure comparison, it has been noticed that the USA is stable despite its low growth rates, while Turkey is fluctuating, volatile and unstable. In addition, when evaluated in terms of employment and inflation, it was ascertained that the USA was more affected by the 2008 crisis compared to Turkey in these areas, but while the USA showed a steady improvement, Turkey did not experience an improvement in unemployment rates, while the inflation rate doubled. In the SWOT analysis of the US economy, it has been observed that although the USA is the world's largest market and has innovative and rich resources, outdated infrastructure systems, high-cost military interventions, political polarizations and protectionist measures in trade are threats. Lastly, when the comparative export analysis with the USA is analyzed using the Balassa Index to determine Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) values, it is been found that Turkey has a strong revealed comparative advantage in 18 product groups and has the potential to increase its exports to the USA in many different product groups.