Examining the effect of budget expenditures items on budget deficit in Turkey (2011-2021) Logit-Probit Model analysis

The state budget is important in terms of effective implementation of fiscal policies. With fiscal policies, the state aims to reach macroeconomic stability, growth and eliminate issues such as income inequality. While implementing policies aimed at ensuring economic growth and stability, the state often leads to the formation of a budget deficit. The negative impact of the budget deficit on the economy in the long term is seen as an undesirable situation in terms of macroeconomic balance. The aim of this study is to determine how the budget deficit can be affected through functional codes subject to analytical classification within budget expenditures. In the study where the Logit-Probit regression method was used, the period 2011-2021 was considered monthly. According to the analysis results, the effect of the variables of economic affairs and services, general public services, social security and social assistance services and public order and security services on the budget deficit was statistically significant. It was concluded that effective management of public finances in terms of economic stability and growth targets will contribute to the control of the budget deficit.