Türkiye'deki Otomatik Katılımlı Bireysel Emeklilik Sisteminin etkinliği üzerine ampirik bir analiz: Dürtme teorisi perspektifinden

Social Security Systems are very important in terms of people's economic welfare and macroeconomic balances of countries. Many reforms have been implemented over time to ensure the sustainable structure of the social security system. The most important one may be, the Private Pension System which is a complement to Social Security. However, participation level to the Private Pension System must be sufficient for the sustainability of the Social Security System. In this sense, participation in the Private Pension System in Turkey could not reach the desired levels. For this reason, the Automatic Enrollment Private Pension system has been introduced by policy makers in Turkey, as in many other countries in the world. Automatic enrollment directs people towards making more rational decisions by its nature. In this context, the first important finding of the thesis is the similarity between the Automatic Enrollment Private Pension System in Turkey and the Nudge type policies of behavioral economics. The Automatic Enrollment Private Pension System in Turkey aims to increase the economic well-being of people during their retirement by nudging them to stay in the system thanks to their cognitive biases. The main purpose of the thesis is to determine the demographic and behavioral factors that affect individuals' decisions to leave or stay in the Automatic Enrollment Private Pension System in Turkey. In this context, two empirical models were created by using the data obtained from online survey of 570 people. According to the results of the first model, while the increase in the monthly income and basic literacy level of the individual increases the probability of leaving from Automatic Enrollment Private Pension System, the increase in the trust of the individual in the system increases the probability of staying in Automatic Enrollment Private Pension System. According to the results of the second model, it was determined that 53% of the individuals who remained in the Automatic Enrollment Private Pension System stayed in the system due to the excessive application and paperwork required to leave the system. When the demographic factors affecting individuals' thinking in this regard are examined, as the age and education level of the individual increases or the number of the individual's household decreases, the probability of staying in the system increases due to the excessive application and paperwork required to leave the system. In this context, it is necessary to benefit from the findings of behavioral theory in order to increase the effectiveness of the Automatic Enrollment Private Pension System in Turkey. The fact that human behavior is not fully rational allows behavioral policies to achieve more effective results at less cost. Keywords: Automatic Enrollment Private Pension System in Turkey, Behavioral Economics, Nudge, Default, Probit Model