Foreign trade deficit and technology relationship in Turkey: REW time-changeable causes analysis

Foreign trade has an important place for countries. Foreign trade refers to the trade of goods and services between countries with other countries. In this commercial relationship, it is considered as an important goal that countries do not have a deficit in foreign trade. Accordingly, policies that increase exports and reduce imports are considered important economic policies, and each country aims to increase its exports and decrease its imports. Foreign trade data contains important information about a country in terms of economy. The development level of the country can be interpreted by looking at the nature of the products in the country's exports. It would not be wrong to say that this country is a developed country if the products in its exports have high added value and advanced technology products. Similarly, we can say that a country is a developing country if its exports consist of products with low technology and low added value. Countries acquire technology in two ways. The first of these is R&D expenditures and the second is technology transfer. The technology obtained is used in production processes to produce more efficient and quality products and export them. In this study, it has been tried to determine the causality relations from technology-oriented factors to foreign trade deficit and whether they will change over time by using monthly data of Turkey between the years 2011-2022 by using time series analysis. As a result of the empirical study, it has been seen that there is a causal relationship from technology-oriented factors to foreign trade deficit, and the quality of this relationship - the causality and the power of causality - has a dynamic structure.