Determinants of e-commerce in Turkey: Fourier ADL cointegration and fourier causality tests (2013-2022)

From the time it emerged, e-commerce has transformed and made great progress with many social, economic and technological factors, especially the changes in consumption, developments in internet infrastructure, advances in banking activities, and the covid-19 pandemic that has emerged in recent years. The factors that determine the development of the rapidly growing e commerce sector are important in terms of the fact that the sector contains a structure that creates demand and employment, accelerates technological developments, and increases social and economic development. The e-commerce sector, which is relatively new to the long history of commerce, is developing in Turkey as well as in many countries. In this study, using the data of 2013-2022, the relationship between e-commerce transaction volume and gross domestic product, total number of bank and credit card numbers, number of internet domain names and consumer trust index in Turkey was analyzed using Fourier ADL Cointegration Analysis, Fully Corrected Least Squares (FMOLS) Method, Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) Method and Canonical Co integrated Regression Analysis (CCR). In addition, Granger Causality Test, Toda and Yamamoto Causality Test, Fourier Granger Causality Test, Fourier Toda and Yamamoto Causality Test and Fractional Fourier Toda and Yamamoto Causality Test were applied to determine the causality relationships between the variables in the model. Differently studies examining the determinants of e-commerce transaction volume in the literature, Fourier methods were used in this study. These methods are important in determining the real effect of the independent variables in the model on the dependent variable, e-commerce transaction volume. These methods are important to determine the real effect of the independent variables in the model on the dependent variable e-commerce transaction volüme because they take into account the effect of soft-transition structural breaks such as Covid-19, which causes great increases in the e commerce sector. According to the regression estimates (FMOLS, DOLS and CCR) made in the study, the increases in gross domestic product, the total number of bank and credit cards, the number of internet domain names and the consumer trust index increase the e-commerce transaction volume.And also, according to the causality analyzes performed, one-way causality relationships were determined between the variables.