Türkiye ekonomisinde döviz kuru dinamiklerinin ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkileri

This study researches the effects of changes and volatility in the exchange rate on the trade balance after the transition to the floating exchange rate in the Turkish economy. For this purpose, four different models have been developed. These models are estimated by the ARDL method by using quarterly and monthly data from 2003 through 2018. The starting point of the research is to examine the validity of the J-Curve theory in the Turkish economy. According to the results of the analysis of the main model used in the study, there is no J-Curve effect on the trade balance in the related period. The results state that the effect of changes in exchange rates on the foreign trade balance is limited. The main reason for that is the high usage of imported intermediate goods and inputs in production. The results of the second model estimated confirm this situation. The study also investigates the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the trade balance. For this purpose, estimated model results show that the exchange rate fluctuation has a positive effect in the short term and a negative effect in the long term. Moreover, the changes in production harm the trade balance. The results of analysis show that the fundamental structural problem of Turkey's economy is the usage of imported intermediate goods and inputs. Therefore, the effect of the exchange rate on trade balance differs from theoretical expectations. The main policy result of the study is that foreign trade balance might be improved by increasing the usage of domestic intermediate goods and inputs in production. Keywords: Trade Balance, J-Curve, Real Effective Exchange Rate, ARDL model