Türkiye ekonomisinin enflasyon dinamikleri: Ayrıştırılmış Phillips eğrisi yaklaşımı

This thesis aims to analyze the inflation dynamics in the Turkish economy by adopting a disaggregated Phillips curve approach. Phillips curve, which is the focus of this thesis, is a mostly used theoretical concept that shows the relationship between the inflation rate and economic activity. Based on this theoretical framework, this study presents six different models for subcomponents of the Consumer Price Index alongside the aggregated model. These models employ the quarterly data between 2003Q1-2020Q1. The descriptive analysis reveals that the Turkish economy has a structural inflation problem due to foreign-source dependency. Also, the findings of econometric models support this phenomenon. According to the results, the backward-looking indexation (inertia) is very high in each sub-group. Also, the output gap creates upward-pressure on prices with some lags, in general. However, the aggregated model does not catch this effect. Besides, cost shocks come from the exchange rate, and related subcomponents of import unit price index drive inflation through various channels in the quite short-term. Moreover, the stronger long-run effects of these shocks deteriorate pricing behaviors and make inflation a structural problem for the Turkish economy.